OK, in all future posts, I will refer to this particular Football system as “FTWF”, which is short for “Four The Win Football”.
As promised, I have done some “Risk of Ruin” calculations to determine what a good bankroll size would be to do this system with. As you may recall from my previous post on this subject, I initially did some calculations using 20% of the bank as my betting unit, but felt that without further data, it might be safer to use 10% of the bank as the betting unit.
To do the calculations, I used the the “Bankroll” calculator at this site. While the site is really for calculating a poker bankroll, it is still applicable here.
Using my spreadsheet, here are the results:
Flat Betting
Betting Unit: $25
Average Profit per Game: $3.96
Standard Deviation of the profit (using the “STDEV” function of the spreadsheet): 13.71
Plugging the numbers into the “Bankroll” calculator like this:
Win Rate: 3.93 (this is is average profit per game)
Standard Deviation: 13.71 (the standard deviation of the profit/loss)
Risk of Ruin %: (see below)
Using a “Risk of Ruin %” of 5 resulted a a bankroll requirement of only $71.64; “risk of Ruin %” of 1 resulted a bankroll requirement of $110.13
1-2-3-1 Staking Plan
Betting Unit: $25
Average Profit per Game: $4.62
Standard Deviation of the profit (using the “STDEV” function of the spreadsheet): 16.05
Plugging the numbers into the “Bankroll” calculator like this:
Win Rate: 4.62 (this is is average profit per game)
Standard Deviation: 16.05 (the standard deviation of the profit/loss)
Risk of Ruin %: (see below)
Using a “Risk of Ruin %” of 5 resulted a a bankroll requirement of only $85.32; “risk of Ruin %” of 1 resulted a bankroll requirement of $128.39
Increasing Betting Unit Based on 10% of Total Bankroll
This one was a little more tricky, since I needed to start with *some* bankroll number as a basis for the calculation. To arrive a betting unit of $25, I needed to assume a bank of $250. Here are the results:
Betting Unit: $25
Average Profit per Game: $4.70
Standard Deviation of the profit (using the “STDEV” function of the spreadsheet): 22.80
Plugging the numbers into the “Bankroll” calculator like this:
Win Rate: 4.70 (this is is average profit per game)
Standard Deviation: 22.80 (the standard deviation of the profit/loss)
Risk of Ruin %: (see below)
Using a “Risk of Ruin %” of 5 resulted a a bankroll requirement of only $165.67; “risk of Ruin %” of 1 resulted a bankroll requirement of $254.68
Interestingly, if I only wanted a 1% “Risk of Ruin”, then my “assumption” of using a starting bank of $250 for this one was actually very close. Actually, looking at all the results, my initial instinct of being able to use 20% of your bank as a betting unit seems to be a good one, but I am still going to use 10% of my bank as my betting unit until i get further data (two or three more seasons)
A couple final calculations:
1-2-3-1 Staking Plan: Each Team Bet At Its Own Series”
Betting Unit: $25
Average Profit per Game: $6.90
Standard Deviation of the profit (using the “STDEV” function of the spreadsheet): 23.42
Plugging the numbers into the “Bankroll” calculator like this:
Win Rate: 6.90 (this is is average profit per game)
Standard Deviation: 23.41 (the standard deviation of the profit/loss)
Risk of Ruin %: (see below)
Using a “Risk of Ruin %” of 5 resulted a a bankroll requirement of only $118.97; “risk of Ruin %” of 1 resulted a bankroll requirement of $182.88
Flat Bet: Each Team Bet As It’s Own Series
Betting Unit: $25
Average Profit per Game: 5.31
Standard Deviation of the profit (using the “STDEV” function of the spreadsheet): 18.97
Plugging the numbers into the “Bankroll” calculator like this:
Win Rate: 5.31 (this is is average profit per game)
Standard Deviation: 18.97 (the standard deviation of the profit/loss)
Risk of Ruin %: (see below)
Using a “Risk of Ruin %” of 5 resulted a a bankroll requirement of only $101.51; “risk of Ruin %” of 1 resulted a bankroll requirement of $156.05
So there you have it; pick which betting strategy you want to adopt, and size your bankroll appropriately.
One final question you might have is what is more appropriate: 5% Risk of Ruin or 1% (or even lower??) That is really up to you. If you are doing this as a hobby or secondary income, then you are probably safe with using the 5% figure, but if you are doing it for a living or just don’t want to go broke, then 1% (or lower) would be more appropriate.
I hope this helps you. As always, if you have any comments on this article or the numbers used in it, please feel free to comment.
