OK, so apparently John Morrison has made a tweak to the system that takes into account a statistic called “Relative Power index”, or “RPI”, which takes in to account the team’s winning percentage and quality of opponents. The new tweak would pass on “qualified” picks who have an RPI that is less than a certain threshold. Apparent back-testing would have eliminated virtually all losses in the last 20 years and 27% fewer games/series to bet on. The current season would apparently be 37-0 using the new tweak, and all future picks this season (and beyond0 will be made with the new tweak, apparently. In addition, all 37 wins this season would have occurred on the “A” or “B” bet, and virtually eliminated the “C” bet.
I will await further testing, but I am leaning towards recommending this system, but with caution. With only a few games left to bet on this season, I will probably bet on it next season too, as the new tweaks seem to make it better, though time will only tell.
Within the next couple of days I will update what the results would have been for this season with the new tweaks, though they will not reflect my current results.
August 26, 2008 at 7:54 am |
[...] picks ago, John Morrison added an additional criteria for a qualifying pick (you can read about it here if you are unfamiliar with what I am talking [...]